SheeFood

Doing Restaurants Right

If I was president of a restaurant chain, I’d have quit by now. Consumer spending has not been kind to restaurants.  For 2010, restaurant sales were down 2.8%, according to Packaged Facts. Full-service restaurants were especially hard hit (down 4.3%), and that’s after a worse year in 2009 and a similarly bad year in 2008. 

That’s full-service restaurants.  Limited-service restaurants (fast-food and fast-casuals) also suffered in 2010, but not nearly so bad. Shining in the middle of it all has been McDonald’s—the Walmart of restaurants. McDonald’s hardly suffered throughout the recession. There’s a reason beyond dollar-menu cheap. The chain has kept innovating. Hello McCafe. It was launched in 2008—the year the economy went sour and overall restaurant sales plummeted.

The greasy-burger persona gone Starbucks drew laughs and jokes at first. But who is laughing at Caramel Mocha? McDonald’s has made itself a go-to place for coffee, frappes and smoothies. It even redid its milkshakes. How? It renamed them (triple thick shakes), added whipped cream and a cherry and put it in clear cups.

The chain has also set its sights on breakfast. In a few days, McDonald’s will launch oatmeal nationwide. And if you’re not keeping track, oatmeal is pretty trendy right now. Details?

The Fruit and Maple Oatmeal will have half a cup of fruit, including red and green apples, dried cranberries and golden and regular raisins.

Other ways McDonald’s has coaxed higher sales: it’s added free Wi-Fi internet access to get people to come in and stay longer (and buy more); raised prices here and there; advertised like crazy—taking advantage of lower ad rates offered during the recession; and it has updated its computer system to better analyze what is selling and how consumers are reacting to certain products and prices. This is helping it determine the best pricing—quickly.

Bottom line, the company is a well-greased machine. I’d say it is managed well. Company leaders have not wasted recession time wringing their hands. They have planned, innovated and moved forward. As much as people love to hate McDonald’s, the company is a case study in success. It’s not afraid to try new things, and yank whatever isn’t working—quickly (think Mac Snack Wrap, introduced earlier in 2010, and out just months later).

And so, I’ll call McDonald’s the quick-serve chain of 2010. What do you think?

Jody

Snack Attack

If I was a fast-food operator, I’d try to figure out ways to coax more teens into my place than the fast-food joint down the street, because 99% of teenagers are going to get fast food. That’s a fact, based on a Mintel survey of teenagers’ fast-food habits.

I think I know how I’d do it. I’d offer more snacks. And if I didn’t have any snack tidbit ideas, I’d just take something already on the menu and call it a snack. You see, it turns out, more teens eat snacks at fast-food restaurants than eat breakfast at them. The word snack combined with the time of day resonates.

KFC wins the snack daypart, in my opinion, for positioning some of its sandwiches as snacks by calling (and trademarking them) Snackers. There’s the basic KFC Snacker and then four other line extensions: Buffalo KFC Snacker; Ultimate Cheese KFC Snacker; KFC Fish Snacker; and HBBQ Snacker.

Snack wraps, that I’ve already said in a previous post aren’t a trend, are actually quickly becoming the main snack thing. McDonald’s is seeing to that. It has a handful of them now, the most recent being the Angus Snack Wrap.

I think there’s plenty more room for snack wordage innovation: Snacksation, Snackalicious, Snaccasion. Then, there’s the simple task of revising the menu to include a snack section. What once was called sides could now be called sides and snacks. Desserts make great snacks. So change that menu section and call it desserts and snacks.

That’s the menu part. Then there’s the marketing, which could all be done on the fast-food chain's Facebook page. That’s where teens hang out. Take KFC, for example. It has more than 2.5 million Facebook fans who can sign up for the chain’s e-mail club to receive special offers. That’s where to announce snack promotions and/or a frequent-snacker program.

Bottom line for fast-food restaurants, the Snacksky is the limit. What do you think?

Jody

Pie? I Don't Think So

If I had a bumper sticker on the back of my car, it might likely read “I brake for trend charts.” They fascinate me. I don’t usually disagree with them. But there’s one 2011 food trend prediction that’s been circulating that I just don’t get. Pie. How could that possibly be a trend?

I’ve kept this to myself until this week when I read the article, “10 NYC Dining Trends that Didn’t Take Off This Year.” Pie was one of them. Thank you ny.eater.com and writer Greg Morabito.

He said he had heard that pies are the new cupcake, and he differed, simply because pie shops are not opening up all over New York City like cupcake shops did. I say, let cupcakes be cupcakes and pies—well they are fine at Thanksgiving and for the elderly with a pie-and-coffee history. I mentioned this in an October blog post, but here I am again with a little more dessert detail.

 Restaurants in general have not gotten too excited about pie. Looking at the top 10 desserts served in restaurants over the past three years, per Mintel Menu Insights, we see that apple pie did make the list, at number 10. But it’s been the slowest growing dessert on the top 10 list (up only 3%) next to brownie sundaes, which have actually gone down 4%.

If we want to look at what the real dessert trends are, look at what’s happened with sorbet. Sorbet menu mentions have increased 80% in the past three years, and most of that happened from 2009-10. Ice cream continues as the top dessert on menus and keeps gaining ground. It was up 29% in the past three years.

 Top 10 dessert mentions on menus Q3 2007-Q3 2010

	Q3 2007	Q3 2008	Q3 2009	Q3 2010	% change from Q3 2007-Q32010
Ice Cream	150	150	149	194	29
Cake - Chocolate	132	137	152	156	18
Sundae	107	103	114	129	21
Cheesecake	110	107	105	119	8
Sundae - Brownie	81	80	71	78	-4
Cookie	68	79	70	86	26
Creme Brulee	68	69	75	86	26
Sorbet	61	60	66	110	80
Dessert - Brownie	50	54	63	66	32
Pie - Apple	59	55	52	61	3

Source: Mintel Menu Insights

For another gaze at dessert trends, I looked through the National Restaurant Association’s “What’s Hot in 2011” chef survey in which more than 1,500 chef members of the American Culinary Federation rated a list of 226 items as to their level of trend hotness. Among desserts, pie was not even a survey choice. But it’s interesting to see what the chefs say and have said for the past three surveys and compare it to what’s on menus.

For 2011, artisan/house-made ice cream is at the top. That’s reasonable considering ice cream already is the leading dessert on menus, and all things artisan are getting the nod lately.

Let’s look at sorbet. From the chart above, it jumped significantly on restaurant menus in 2010, probably a result of restaurants/consumers wanting better-for-you dessert options. In 2010, it came out as the fifth biggest dessert trend, as rated by chefs. It was third in 2009. It’s not in the top five for 2011. Does this mean restaurants are finished with sorbet? My guess is that it will continue to increase, maybe just not among independent restaurants, as many of the chefs participating in the survey are independents. Restaurant chains, on the other hand, will need to be good corporate citizens and continue to find healthful offerings for their dessert menus. Sorbet works.

Top 5 hottest dessert trends per chefs from the past three What’s Hot surveys 

2011	2010	2009
Artisan/house-made ice cream	Bite-size/mini desserts	Bite-size/mini desserts
Bite-size/mini desserts	Artisan/house-made ice cream	Dessert flights/combos
Dessert flights/combos	Dessert flights/combos	Gelato/sorbet
Deconstructed classic desserts	Savory desserts	Drinkable desserts
Savory desserts	Gelato/sorbet	Savory desserts

Source: National Restaurant Association/What’s Hot Chef’s Survey

Tell me what you think.

Jody

What Consumers Really Want

If anyone would know what consumers really care about when they go out to eat, it would be chefs, don’t you think? Or maybe it’s the media. Or maybe it’s research analysts. Well, I have a little secret I’ll share in a minute.

I just got the National Restaurant Association’s “What’s Hot in 2011” chefs survey. Like every year, the NRA gave more than 1,500 chef members of the American Culinary Federation a list of 226 food and beverage items, cuisines, culinary themes and preparation methods and asked them to rate each as a hot trend, yesterday’s news or perennial favorite. Based on their responses, the items were ranked by their “hotness” levels.

And so, according to all these chefs, for 2011, the top three hottest things are locally sourced meats and seafood, locally grown produce and sustainability. So, it’s all about where the food comes from and how it’s grown. Is anyone else as surprised as I am how quickly this whole way of thinking has soared into national consciousness? Just a few years ago in 2009, the top three hottest things were bite-size mini desserts, organic produce and nutritionally balanced children’s dishes. Now there’s a carbon footprint stamped on everyone’s brain. Or is there?

In October, 1725 consumers who had eaten out at a restaurant in the past month were asked in a Mintel survey which of a list of items they felt restaurants need to improve upon. Sustainability wasn’t No. 1. Low price was with 52% saying it was either very or somewhat important. Sustainability wasn’t No. 2 (it was higher quality food/ingredients at 28%). Here’s my secret. The sustainability choice (more locally sourced/local food options) ranked fifth with only 16% saying it was very or somewhat important. It actually tied with “cleaner bathrooms.” Te he.

I know that between the two surveys we aren’t comparing apples with apples. Both surveyed groups were looking at different lists answering a different question. But it seems clear to me that average consumers aren’t thinking too much about sustainability when they go out to eat.

And another thought from my produce industry editorial background. Some 10-15 years ago, organic produce really did start to enter the minds of consumers in a big way as concern over ingesting pesticides took hold. This put stress on the commercial produce industry as it realized it had to provide the solution to this. Many companies began transitioning part of their acreage to grow organic. It cost them a lot, but they recognized this desire for organics was real and it wasn’t going away. Add to that the organic certification standards that became law, and there was this huge industry movement to answer the loud call for more organics (at low prices).

And now look what’s happened. The conversation has moved away from organics to locally grown and sustainable, which really has no official definition. Growers went to all that trouble and expense to become certified so they could legally call their produce organic, and it turns out that all people really cared about was this feeling of knowing what is going on with their food. Had the industry known this would happen, it might have gone a different direction. Notice in the chart below that organic produce was ranked No. 2 in the 2009 chef survey. You can’t see it below, but for 2011, organic produce is No. 14. ... Tell me what you think.

Top five foods, beverages, cuisines and culinary themes over time per chefs

2011	2010	2009
Locally sourced meats and seafood Locally grown produce Sustainability Nutritionally balanced children’s dishes Hyper-local (e.g. restaurant gardens, do your own butchering)	Locally grown produce Locally sourced meats and seafood Sustainability Bite size/mini desserts Locally produced wine and beer	Bite-size mini desserts Organic produce Nutritionally balanced children’s dishes New/fabricated cuts of meat Fruits/vegetables children’s side items

Source: National Restaurant Association/What’s Hot in 2011 chef survey

Jody Shee

Someone Please Help Children's Menus

What would happen if a kid sat down to the children’s menu at T.G.I. Friday’s and had choices like sushi, curry chicken, gumbo, cheesy grits, a garden salad and a fruit cup? Well first, that’s not going to happen. But if it did, that kid might surprise everyone with wide eyes of eagerness.

That’s according to a recent survey conducted by Chicago-based Y-Pulse LLC of nearly 1,800 5-15 year olds. The company specializes in kid market research via schools for the school foodservice market.

In the survey, kids were asked to list their favorite foods. Naturally, high on the list were things like you find on T.G.I. Friday’s menu (mac and cheese, hamburger, pizza, chicken fingers, etc.) But it turns out that what’s on trend with grownups is also catching the eye of kids.

Many kids listed sushi as something they like. They also said they like foods from other countries, like Thailand, Pakistan and India. Regional U.S. cuisine also ranked well, hence the gumbo and grits. Additionally, if healthy fare is growing in popularity among grownups, couldn’t you just bet that kids are starting to think that way too? Yes. Salads and fruit made it to the list of favorite foods. The press release announcing the results of this study says, “The desire for healthy foods is so strong among some children – particularly older kids – that when asked how they can improve their school cafeterias, several respondents said they would like to see more healthy items on their breakfast or lunch menu throughout the day.”

While this study was done to show school foodservice a thing or two, there’s certainly cause for pause for restaurants. How about testing some of this out? The kids' menu of tomorrow doesn’t have to look like it does today, which it looked like yesterday and last year and a decade ago. Clearly, some adult-like menu innovation would be welcomed on the kids' menu.  

Red Lobster may have been one of the first to think “adult” for kids and offers them broiled fish, snow crab legs and garlic grilled shrimp. Beyond that, kids' menus are real snoozers. It’s time for some restaurant operators to go to grade school and have a look around.

What do you think?

Jody