If I had a bumper sticker on the back of my car, it might likely read “I brake for trend charts.” They fascinate me. I don’t usually disagree with them. But there’s one 2011 food trend prediction that’s been circulating that I just don’t get. Pie. How could that possibly be a trend?
I’ve kept this to myself until this week when I read the article, “10 NYC Dining Trends that Didn’t Take Off This Year.” Pie was one of them. Thank you ny.eater.com and writer Greg Morabito.
He said he had heard that pies are the new cupcake, and he differed, simply because pie shops are not opening up all over New York City like cupcake shops did. I say, let cupcakes be cupcakes and pies—well they are fine at Thanksgiving and for the elderly with a pie-and-coffee history. I mentioned this in an October blog post, but here I am again with a little more dessert detail.
Restaurants in general have not gotten too excited about pie. Looking at the top 10 desserts served in restaurants over the past three years, per Mintel Menu Insights, we see that apple pie did make the list, at number 10. But it’s been the slowest growing dessert on the top 10 list (up only 3%) next to brownie sundaes, which have actually gone down 4%.
If we want to look at what the real dessert trends are, look at what’s happened with sorbet. Sorbet menu mentions have increased 80% in the past three years, and most of that happened from 2009-10. Ice cream continues as the top dessert on menus and keeps gaining ground. It was up 29% in the past three years.
Top 10 dessert mentions on menus Q3 2007-Q3 2010
|
Q3 2007 |
Q3 2008 |
Q3 2009 |
Q3 2010 |
% change from Q3 2007-Q32010 |
|
|
Ice Cream |
150 |
150 |
149 |
194 |
29 |
|
Cake - Chocolate |
132 |
137 |
152 |
156 |
18 |
|
Sundae |
107 |
103 |
114 |
129 |
21 |
|
Cheesecake |
110 |
107 |
105 |
119 |
8 |
|
Sundae - Brownie |
81 |
80 |
71 |
78 |
-4 |
|
Cookie |
68 |
79 |
70 |
86 |
26 |
|
Creme Brulee |
68 |
69 |
75 |
86 |
26 |
|
Sorbet |
61 |
60 |
66 |
110 |
80 |
|
Dessert - Brownie |
50 |
54 |
63 |
66 |
32 |
|
Pie - Apple |
59 |
55 |
52 |
61 |
3 |
Source: Mintel Menu Insights
For another gaze at dessert trends, I looked through the National Restaurant Association’s “What’s Hot in 2011” chef survey in which more than 1,500 chef members of the American Culinary Federation rated a list of 226 items as to their level of trend hotness. Among desserts, pie was not even a survey choice. But it’s interesting to see what the chefs say and have said for the past three surveys and compare it to what’s on menus.
For 2011, artisan/house-made ice cream is at the top. That’s reasonable considering ice cream already is the leading dessert on menus, and all things artisan are getting the nod lately.
Let’s look at sorbet. From the chart above, it jumped significantly on restaurant menus in 2010, probably a result of restaurants/consumers wanting better-for-you dessert options. In 2010, it came out as the fifth biggest dessert trend, as rated by chefs. It was third in 2009. It’s not in the top five for 2011. Does this mean restaurants are finished with sorbet? My guess is that it will continue to increase, maybe just not among independent restaurants, as many of the chefs participating in the survey are independents. Restaurant chains, on the other hand, will need to be good corporate citizens and continue to find healthful offerings for their dessert menus. Sorbet works.
Top 5 hottest dessert trends per chefs from the past three What’s Hot surveys
|
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
|
Artisan/house-made ice cream |
Bite-size/mini desserts |
Bite-size/mini desserts |
|
Bite-size/mini desserts |
Artisan/house-made ice cream |
Dessert flights/combos |
|
Dessert flights/combos |
Dessert flights/combos |
Gelato/sorbet |
|
Deconstructed classic desserts |
Savory desserts |
Drinkable desserts |
|
Savory desserts |
Gelato/sorbet |
Savory desserts |
Source: National Restaurant Association/What’s Hot Chef’s Survey
Tell me what you think.
Jody
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