SheeFood

The Big 2014 Food Trend is "Hot"

I predict that 2014 will be a hot year—for pepper growers. In fact, anyone looking for a second business might take up chipotle, jalapeno and habanero pepper growing to supply local restaurants. Or open a Sriracha plant in the basement.

Spicy menu-mention trends in 2013 were mixed, but there’s a reason. Quick-serve and fast-casual restaurants led the way in heating up menus, probably in response to what they have determined customers really want—bold flavor. The term spicy is the third-leading flavor mentioned on menus, according to Mintel’s Menu Insights. In 2013, it dropped from second place with seasoned overtaking it. But that doesn’t really tell the spicy story. Operators are getting smarter in conveying the flavor, and rather than use the generic spicy term, they are innovating with peppers and naming them. Thus, menu mentions of chipotle are up 26% from 2010-13.

I believe we are only on the front edge of kicking up the spiciness of ingredients and dishes. Just in the past two weeks I’ve read two more spicy menu tweaks.

• Wendy’s is offering Spicy Chipotle Crispy Chicken Sandwiches and Spicy Chipotle Jr. Cheeseburgers.  
• Subway is bringing in Jalapeno Cheddar Bread for a limited time. The chain had already ratcheted up the spices as a sponsor of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire movie with a fiery menu to match—as in Fiery Footlong sandwiches featuring a creamy Sriracha sauce.

You’ll notice that much of the spice going on now is presented as limited-time offers (LTOs). There are two reasons for that. They are easier to bring in quickly, and it makes more sense to plan a quick in-and-out in order to gauge customer acceptance. I expect that in 2014, chains will begin to add these items permanently. But in the meantime, here are a few more that popped up in 2013.

• As a fall LTO, Panda Express added Sriracha Shrimp featuring crispy shrimp, string beans, and red bell peppers tossed in Sriracha sauce.
• Red Robin launched The Berserker Burger described as a fire-grilled burger topped with aioli, spicy pickles, Sriracha onion straws, and cheddar cheese on a brioche bun to tie in with the July movie The Wolverine.
• Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen ran a Rip’n Chick’n LTO featuring a chicken breast cut into “rip-able” strips marinated with a blend of cayenne, habanero, and white and black pepper in April.
• In the summer, Dunkin’ Donuts, offered a Hot & Spicy Breakfast Sandwich and Hot & Spicy Wake-Up Wrap. The sandwich was described as a spicy omelet with jalapeno peppers, red bell peppers, and pepper jack cheese with habanero, served with bacon and white cheddar on a plain bagel. The wrap included half the spicy omelet served with bacon and white cheddar on a flour tortilla.
• In November, Cousins Subs, added two LTO sandwiches to its menu: Chipotle Cheese Steak and Chipotle Chicken.
• One more. For the winter holidays, Tropical Smoothie Café brought back its Chipotle Cranberry Turkey Club Flatbread.

Notice, except for Red Robin, none of these fall in the sagging casual-dining restaurant segment. Bold-flavored menu modernization among the popular sit-down diners is going to have to catch up. The ship is leaving the dock without them. Let’s watch 2014 together as spicy innovation overtakes casual dining.

Tell me what you think.

Jody

The Problem With Red Lobster

We’ve all just learned that Darden is planning to purge itself of Red Lobster. Did anyone see this coming? Interestingly, I ate there last Friday night for the first time in decades. I’m just not a seafood person, which may be part of the chain’s problem. I must not be alone. I was surprised that there was no wait, and the restaurant didn’t fill up while we were there. It was Friday night! Had we gone to Olive Garden down the street, we would have had a long wait.

But I think I know the reason Red Lobster has struggled. It’s apparent from the consumer research I’ve been studying for Mintel’s upcoming report Dining Out: A 2014 Look Ahead—U.S., January 2014.

During the recession, restaurants found that the only way to attract customers was to offer value menus and value meals. But now we are out of the recession. Restaurant industry sales grew 6.1% in 2012 and another estimated 5.1% in 2013. You would think the need for value meals is gone. But no. The industry has unwittingly conditioned consumers to expect a big discount somewhere on that menu. Truly.

When survey respondents were asked to rate a list of factors that influence them in their choice of restaurant, leading at 90% was “Has a wide variety of value menu options.” When given a list of things they have ordered from a menu in the past month and would order again, the leading response at 84% was “Dishes from a value menu,” and close behind at 83% was “Special meal deals (e.g. 2 for 1, $10 off on Wednesdays, etc.).”

All this bodes well for quick service restaurants and fast casual. Price value is what they are all about. So what about casual dining restaurants like Olive Garden and Red Lobster? Value is not their middle name.

According to today’s USA Today, “Red Lobster has been losing importance with consumers, due to the rise of newer concepts that pitch better value.”

Interestingly, my husband and I weren’t looking for value when we visited Red Lobster. We were celebrating his birthday, and that was where he wanted to go. We were set to pay full price, until we saw a panel running down the side of the menu that said to pick 4 for $14.99. We could have a salad, soup, entrée and dessert. We nearly spit out our water. “You’ve got to be kidding! Of course we’ll get that!” It was such a good deal for us, but the restaurant could have made so much more off of us without that deal. It’s a Catch 22. Should they not offer the value meal and make money off of people like us, or should they offer the value meal in hopes it will draw people in who wouldn’t come in without the deal?

This is how casual dining restaurants will be challenged going forward. They have to be on their toes in many other ways… with technology, with entrée innovation, but also with expanded appetizers and side dishes, because 80% of those surveyed in Mintel’s survey have ordered several appetizers instead of an entree, and 80% also have ordered several sides to make up a meal. Marketing appetizers as meals could be the next play in the casual dining playbook.

Tell me what you think.

Jody

White Castle is King of Trendiness

If I was going to pick a restaurant chain that is positioning itself for the future and doing it right, it would be White Castle. Are you surprised? I was surprised when I read a White Castle press release the other day about the grand reopening of one of its restaurants that is serving as a prototype. I read it just after digesting all the consumer survey data for Mintel’s upcoming Dining Out: A 2014 Look Ahead—U.S., January 2014 report.

The features of the remodeled White Castle reflect the trends that haven’t even published yet. Here are the interesting White Castle new features:

• There are self-ordering stations inside that allow customers to order from a touch-screen menu. This is a proposition in its infancy that you will hear more about in the coming year as Applebee’s and Chili’s ramp up tablet-ordering at the table. McDonald’s is also testing kiosk ordering in a few of its stores. So while it’s not a trend yet, it will be soon. Some 22% of men agree that they would like full-service restaurants to have table-top tablets for entertainment, ordering and speed of service. One could surmise that they would be equally interested in limited-service restaurants doing the same.
• The White Castle restaurant was designed with an open kitchen, allowing customers to watch their orders being made before their eyes. First, allowing customers to watch their food come together is a play from the fast-casual segment (like Chipotles and sub shops that allow you to give input as your order is being prepared). White Castle’s model isn’t a service line, but does let the customer watch, and that matters to 47% of consumers who say that one of the factors that influences where they eat is the opportunity to see their food being prepared as they wait. The percentage is 60% among adults ages 36 and below.
• It has installed a Coca-Cola Freestyle fountain dispenser. If you’re familiar with that, you know it features more than 100 soft-drink flavors. I’ve wondered why more restaurants don’t go with that (Burger King has). Half of consumers who have eaten out in the past month ordered a soft drink (58% of those ages 48 and below). And the most influential thing in drawing customers to a restaurant is variety. So a wide variety of soft drinks just makes sense.
• Customers can order before they come from a mobile ordering app. Pizza Hut was the first to introduce mobile ordering years ago. Besides pizza restaurants, others are gradually joining in. So, just how popular is online ordering? Only 10% say they prefer online ordering instead of talking to waitstaff. But again, younger adults are keener on the idea (18% of those ages 36 and below).

There are other comments sprinkled throughout the White Castle press release that are remarkably on-trend, such as a comment about “keeping 40 jobs.” Mintel’s survey shows that fair treatment of employees really matters to consumers. The release also says, “We know how important it is to reinvest in the cities where we’re currently located.”  Consumers look for and support socially responsible brands like that.

So, over all, White Castle looks like a remarkably on-trend company. Let me know what you think.

Jody