I see two competing eco-friendly food/foodservice trends going on, and I wonder which one is going to dominate in 2024.
In one corner, you have the plant-based animal-protein look-alikes that the big chains busted their buns to launch, relaunch and over launch. Many restaurant behemoths already squarely have Impossible or Beyond Meat offerings.
These plant-based options have gained prominence as environmentally conscious cuisine recognized for their role in decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, which contributes to reducing climate change. Additionally, they are notable for lessening land and water use, among other benefits. However, their highly processed reputation is a rather noticeable elephant in the room.
Meanwhile, the next big planet-focused thing is coming into view. Chefs are looking at regenerative agriculture-minded farms with the realization that traditional farming practices deplete the soil while diminishing the nutrients. Some chefs are partnering with smaller farmers who increasingly focus on soil health, water management, carbon sequestration via cover crops and minimizing tilling and chemical inputs.
From a consumer perspective, individuals are looking at a climatarian diet that focuses on low carbon footprint foods, local and seasonal eating, sustainable farming practices and reducing food waste.
I’ve watched the sustainability movement over the last few decades. It began about 20 years ago with a sudden interest in organic. Traditional growers bit the bullet and went through the three-year process of transitioning to certified organic. But then… the focus switched to local. Consumers and the foodservice industry asked, what’s the use of buying organics if they are shipped across the country. Low carbon footprint became the holy grail. The sustainability goalpost keeps moving!
You see evidence of the switch in thinking by looking at the annual What’s Hot chef surveys that the National Restaurant Association conducts every year. Fifteen years ago (in 2009) chefs ranked locally grown produce as the top trend. Organic produce was No. 3. The next year and ever since, organic produce hasn’t been in the top 10. However, locally grown produce and locally sourced meats and seafood were the top two trends for five years running beginning in 2010.
Then what happened with sustainability? Hyper-local sourcing entered the top five trends in 2016. That is restaurants growing their own gardens. In 2019, zero-waste cooking made its trend appearance, showing up as the No. 3 trend that year. Plant-based proteins entered the race at No. 2 in 2020. By 2022, plant-based sandwiches ranked as the eighth top trend, and since then, plant-based has dropped out of the top 10 trends.
Now is a good time to take a temperature check of these well-funded plant-based meats. Many restaurant chains only tested them and didn’t roll them out. Others started strong, but discontinued them for lack of customer interest, including Dunkin’ and Hardee’s. Del Taco and Denny’s both gave them the axe more recently in 2023.
Back to regenerative agriculture and the climatarian diet. Chipotle is betting on this form of sustainability that you can read about here. I recently asked the corporate chef of certified regenerative farm The Chef’s Garden in Huron, Ohio, what he thinks is the future of the restaurant industry and regenerative agriculture and the climatarian diet. He gave a fair answer. “It depends on how important it is to the consumer. We are in the service industry. We want to make customers happy to come back. If regenerative agriculture and climatarian-minded foods are important to consumers, that will be critical to what we do.”
I think that as consumers, chefs and farmers jointly prioritize sustainability, a shift away from mere plant-based items is emerging. This eco-friendly focus will shape culinary trends into the future. “Greener is better” is a unifying mantra.
Jody
